Predictions for Friday again
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:08 am
Yes, I read and hear the reports of possible rain coming this weekend, but I wanted to point out that the ETA (NAM) model BlipMap is predicting VERY good conditions coming this Friday.
It's a bit early to tell and the conditions are really going to be decided by the approaching Canadian Upper Low.
It's a bit early to tell and the conditions are really going to be decided by the approaching Canadian Upper Low.
BlipMap data is suggesting altitudes approaching 7k and thermal velocities in the 500'/min range. I would equate this to mean the Canadian Upper Low will move inland instead of traveling south over the water. Tomorrow's solution will give us some better insight.National Weather Service Forecast Discussion wrote:NAM (North American Model) AND GFS (Global Forecast System) CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS THE MORE INLAND OF THE TWO. THE ECMWF (Europeon Center for Medium range Weather Forecast) ALSO APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THIS IDEA (more inland) AND IN FACT, I NOTICED THE 18Z NAM WAS ALSO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. THIS HAS RATHER LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON OUR WEATHER AS A MORE OVER WATER TRAJECTORY WILL RESULT IN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A MUCH MORE SHOWERY TYPE PATTERN WITH PRETTY LOW RAIN AMOUNTS AND VERY SCATTERED IN NATURE. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS TODAY I`M INCLINED TO GO WITH THE MORE INLAND TRACK FOR NOW. WILL GO WITH 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY