Start: Towers appears to be the closest, tallest, and most reliable thermal trigger to the goal LZ. The idea is to be within easy glide to either LZ.
Goal LZ: Wash behind the burger joint. Large, no trees, no telephone poles. Wash aggregate is pea size rock. Pretty good LZ.

Path: Distance if found: (Woops, image shown is the distance on the ground, not as we fly)

Math:
Glide Assumptions: Sport 2, Ignore tail wind for this calculation, Sink/rotor from our hill side.
My guess is 7:1 Glide
(4 miles) 21,120 feet in distance / 7:1 Glide = 3050 Feet
Altitude of Wash LZ 1550MSL + 300 feet AGL upon arrival, for LZ reconnaissance and DBF.
With these assumptions and numbers...
MSL of 4850, or 1050 AGL above towers makes it on glide.
Now consider a tail wind....
Assumptions: 5mph tail wind vector component directly towards goal. Same glide through apparent wind, and the Sport two's best glide speed is 33mph.
That increases the effective glide ratio 15percent or an entire point to 8:1.
That reduces the needed MSL to 4450 and the AGL 700.

