More, here and http://youtu.be/GnkC8OA5iMI
It is my belief that the better we are at managing risk, the more opportunities we get to fly and in a wider variety of conditions. Case in point:
The forecast for Sylmar yesterday was excellent and it was expected to switch from blowing down to blowing in reasonably early in the afternoon. I felt lucky to get a ride up at the last second. It was blowing down very lightly when we arrived at launch and by the time I was set up and on the front ramp it was trickling down. The trickle down strengthened and after 18 minutes I picked up my gear and walked around to the seldom-used (or maintained) North-facing ramp. Some of the club members tested the old plywood portion of the ramp and beefed it up by wedging some rocks under the seam. Our resident tandem pilot, Fred volunteered to put up a few streamers. The wind up the North side was initially weak and turbulent and I spent another 17 minutes waiting until the wind filled in and I believed that launching was not only viable but safe.
The entire 40 minutes spent between the opposite ramps (including the time it took to walk all the way round) was a very good exercise for me in managing risk. I did not have the time or energy to include a few hundred captions of every thought that went through my mind and every decision that I made whether to launch, wait or break down. You'll have to put yourself in my shoes and use your imagination. But I was the first off and as you'll see, it was a cleanly executed launch followed by a decent climb and some exploring before the next two pilots lined up.
Out of the two dozen or so gliders that went up to launch, perhaps 5 or 6 launched the back-side North ramp and another 5 or 6 launched the normal South-facing ramp in nil wind. Everyone else broke down and drove back to the LZ. There were no incidents with the exception of one very minor whack. My impression from the pilots I spoke with later was that everyone did a good job of avoiding taking any unnecessary chances whether they flew or not.
